Ortega Poised to Win Election

Yesterday, November 5, hundreds of thousands of Nicaraguans cast their votes for Nicaragua’s next President and Vice President, legislative representatives, and regional parliament representatives. Though the election results are not yet final, the preliminary results released this afternoon by the Supreme Electoral Council reveal that Sandinista candidate and former President Daniel Ortega sits poised to win the presidential seat.

With 40.43%% of polling places reporting, the votes for President stand as follows: 40.1% for Daniel Ortega (Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional), 32.72% for Eduardo Montealegre (Alianza Liberal Nicaraguense), 20.33% for Jose Rizo (Partido Liberal Constitucionalista), 7.5% for Edmundo Jarquín (Movimiento Renovador Sandinista), and 0.29% for Eden Pastora (Alternativa por el Cambio). To be declared President outright without going to a runoff vote, a candidate must receive 40% of the vote, or receive at least 35% with a minimum 5% lead on the closest competitor. Under these regulations, if the final results reflect the current ones, Ortega will be Nicaragua’s next President.

A “quick count” tabulated by Nicaraguan election observation organization Etica y Transparencia (Ethics and Transparency) also predicted an Ortega victory early this morning. Using results from a representative sample of 1200 polling places, the quick count produced the following spread: 38.49% for Daniel Ortega, 29.52% for Eduardo Montealegre, 24.15% for Jose Rizo, 7.44% for Edmundo Jarquín, and 0.4% for Eden Pastora. Etica y Transparencia representatives placed the quick count’s margin of error at 1.7% and declared the results “non-objectionable.” In the last two elections in Nicaragua, the same organization’s early quick count differed from official results by less than one percent.

Various respected election observation groups have vouched for the fairness of yesterday’s election process. With about 17,000 observers monitoring Nicaragua’s 11,250 polling places, this election is the most watched in Nicaraguan history. The observers include delegations from international organizations like Witness for Peace, the Carter Center, and the Organization of American States, in addition to domestic groups like Etica y Transparencia, which alone deployed over 11,000 trained observers. Etica y Transparencia has stated that anomalies observed in yesterday’s elections are not significant enough to change the final outcome. The Organization of American States has declared that the electoral process was “peaceful, ordered, massive, and in accordance with the law.”

The United States government has not yet issued a statement on the most recent elections results. Tom Casey, Deputy Spokesman of the State Department, stated today, “We will wait for the [official] results before making any declaration about the winners and losers.” Given the massive observation of yesterday’s election process and the consistent verification of its legitimacy, the United States will hopefully accept the final results, whatever they may be, as the indisputable decision of Nicaragua’s voters. To do otherwise would constitute a shameful insult to Nicaragua’s sovereignty.

The Witness for Peace Nicaragua team will continue to track the election results and the U.S. response over the next few days. Check this blog for upcoming updates.